Hello, VWAPians!

As I told you last week and again this morning, the stars appear to be aligning for something we haven’t seen in a while… a dip in the markets!

Yes, I know that recently I’ve been shouting, “The market never goes down!” and “Never short the Qs!

But of course we know that it DOES go down sometimes, and today I want to show you the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) INSANITY that happened after I stopped LIVE trading at 10:30 a.m. ET this morning…

And why I actually (gasp!) shorted the Qs today!

Here’s a hint:

QQQ broke the multiday VWAP (dotted yellow/orange line)!

I also want to talk about why you should be cautious in your bullish trading over the next few weeks. In fact, I’ll give you four reasons I’m nervous about the stock market right now, and the QQQ levels in play after today’s wash-out.

Plus, I’ll update you on my July vacation schedule, and I’ll review my thoughts on oil stocks right now – and why that sector could be a microcosm of the entire stock market.

4 Reasons I’m Nervous About the Market in the Short Term

  1. I’m the center of the universe and crazy stuff happens when I go on vacation.
As my colleague Mark Sebastian noted on Money Morning LIVE this morning, “Every trader thinks the market will go nuts when they step away,” and The Warlock is no exception.

This is obviously ANECDOTAL evidence of a July cooldown in the markets, but when have I ever led you astray?

For those of you who watch me trade LIVE at 9:30 a.m. ET each morning, please note my July vacation schedule:
  • Wednesday, July 7: OUT
  • Thursday, July 8: OUT
  • July 12 – 16: No 9:30 a.m. ET trading session, but I may be popping in from the beach on Money Morning LIVE at 8:30 a.m…
Don’t worry, though, I’m not TOTALLY abandoning you to drink margaritas in the sand – I’ll still be dropping my usual This Is VWAP newsletter, so keep an eye on your inbox!

I’ll be back in the swing of things on Monday, July 19, but be prepared: A market without Kenny Glick could be a market of ANOMALIES.

  1. We’re going into the summer earnings season.
Last Thursday, I warned you that the next influx of quarterly earnings reports could be the catalyst behind a broader market dip, if we’re going to see one.

That could all start with the banking sector, with Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) among the companies set to report next week.

But some of the other names that could make noise on earnings soon — which could have broader-market implications — include:

  • UnitedHealth (UNH)
  • PepsiCo (PEP)
  • Conagra (CAG)
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
  • Alcoa (AA)
  • Kansas City Southern (KSU)
  • Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Keep an eye on these names while I’m vacationing, and if you’re lucky, you just might spot the classic earnings reversal pattern that’s worked well for me in 2021.

  1. We’re already seeing crazy volatility in July.
If you’ve been in the trading game a while, you’ve undoubtedly heard the phrase, “Sell in May and go away” – it’s the old-school premise that stocks tend to get rocky in the summer months, as big-money traders go on vacation.

However, anyone who bought into that this year must have a MAJOR case of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) right about now, looking at the S&P 500 Index (SPX) performance over the past couple of months.

Daily chart of S&P 500 since April 2021 – courtesy of StockCharts

But you can also see on the chart above that July has been especially volatile so far, looking at those candles at the far right of the chart.

There’s a real good possibility that earnings season will only exacerbate that volatility… and that earnings optimism is already baked into stocks, by and large.

In fact, we saw something similar with the red-hot oil sector, as I demonstrated this morning. Some of those names recently DOUBLED in short order, which leaves them vulnerable to profit taking.

What’s happening in oil could be an omen for what’s to come in the short term for other stocks.

  1. The Qs and UVXY are wildin’ out!
After wrapping up today’s LIVE trading session this morning, the QQQ ETF immediately did something I warned about: It broke below its 1-minute VWAP (blue line).

I reiterated this morning that in order for a sell-off to happen, we need to see a few things:

  • The QQQ breaching its recent double-bottom
  • A QQQ break of the 1-minute VWAP
  • The ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF (UVXY) going HIGHER
I also said that if the QQQ breaks its multiday VWAP, that could be an even bigger alarm bell for bulls…

And guess what? All of those things happened when I was off air this morning!

The UVXY never trends like this unless there’s some impending doom in the market.

UVXY higher is a sign of the Apocalypse

I’ll share a quick video about it tomorrow, but in the meantime, know that I’m now watching the QQQ 1-minute/2-day VWAP (dotted yellow/orange line below) to see if it holds.

This could be the warning shots for the first notable sell-off of 2021, you guys.

However, I wouldn’t expect the drop to last very long – and I won’t be surprised if the QQQ bounces back by the end of the month.

That’s it for today, but I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow to talk more about ways to play a down market.

Kenny “The Warlock” Glick


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